San Francisco, California
5 November 2002
Dear friends,
The Society of Afghan Engineers is preparing to send me to Kabul to teach about ten students about city planning. I need your input. In this letter I am going to sketch out some ideas of what I could teach, and other ideas that occur to me as I write. So unless I find time to edit this, it may sound like free association.

A. The current situation: Afghans are not starting from scratch.
1. They have a centuries-old tradition in laws, contracts, trade. Many of the professionals have left the country and few will return unless conditions stabilize and improve substantially, but the expatriates do have a lot of knowledge about the structure of Afghan society before 1979.
2. Iran, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan are all potential cultural resources for Afghans. Likewise, expatriate Iranian professionals here in California may be a resource, because Dari (one of the two major languages in Afghanistan) is an Iranian dialect.

B. The near future: Afghans must stabilize their society in the midst of tremendous change: not just their own demographics, but the notion of a civil society in a post-western world.
1. The countries to the north-Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan-are ostensibly secularized ex-Soviet societies. But I believe Islam will play a significant role in daily life in Afghanistan indefinitely; therefore I believe that the legal system, both civil and criminal, should be clearly founded in Islamic tradition. The primary objective is to stabilize civil society; therefore the laws must be popularly understood, accepted, and defended. That means the laws need to make 'common sense.' It does not mean that Afghans need to go retro as the Taliban proposed. Islamic societies have transformed over time just as all other societies have. But it does mean that I would balance recommendations of familiarity-breeding-stability principles with selected new ideas emerging here in California.
2. I think the four major regional cities in Afghanistan will experience very rapid expansion in the next eight to ten years, if the new government is successful in achieving stability. Refugees will return, the population growth rate will rise, and people in rural areas will migrate to the cities, especially if the drought persists. I expect that the cities that will face major growth are: (1) Kabul, (2)
Mazar-e-Sharif, (3) Qandahar, (4) Herat, probably in that order.
Without more detailed information, I would guess that Kabul will quadruple in population in about eight to ten years. So the planning challenge is serious.

C. The challenge of implementation: poverty, power structure, and policy.
1. Afghans are designing and rebuilding infrastructure as fast as possible. I think that is necessary and appropriate--get the roads and bridges rebuilt, get power and communications systems working again, get hospitals, schools, and police stations working again.
That makes sense but even before they emerge from a 'replace what was lost' phase, they will begin to face new issues. The rapid population growth and shift mentioned above is a major issue, as is a world in which western values are being challenged worldwide, especially by Islamic societies (though not necessarily their current governments). Furthermore changes in information technology over the last twenty years will have an impact, independent of changes in the cultural paradigm.
2. Poverty and the power structure in Afghanistan will be the most significant factors in all planning for the country. The new government brings together a pretty disparate coalition, and I think planners are wisest who do not challenge the present power structure, especially now. That said, I do hope that economic growth, increased security, and increased openness of the government over time will improve the situation and I would encourage the planners to promote these changes. But I think that both for the present and for the future the planners must study the way that social and political power works in Afghanistan. That is essential to forming effective policies.

D. What to bring for the moment: what can I offer Afghan planners right now?

1. Some of what I would propose is laying the groundwork for longer-term development. Some policies may only be successful if they can get a good head start. Also, they should form clear policies that can be used as grant applications, and perhaps proposals that can facilitate the use of outside professional contributions, maybe a 'planner-in-residence' program. I invite suggestions.
2. Afghan planners should be gathering as much information as possible and making it available. Maps and air photos. Surveys and census data for the resident and returning population. Establishment of addresses, gathering of testimony on property disputes, etc; again I invite ideas about what information they should be gathering that will be helpful in the short and long term.
3. Afghan Planners should be developing mission statements if not policies in a number of discrete areas. At the moment I would break them down into:
a. Physical planning of infrastructure and policies for urban growth.
b. Regional economic development plans.
c. Information gathering and distribution of graphic and statistical data.
d. Public health and related public service systems planning.
e. Ongoing development and refinement of codes and regulations.
I bring this up just because planning is an extremely diverse field, and I don't think any one person can tackle its scope. That is a limitation for me, but I would encourage regional economic planning even if I have little experience in the field.
4. Connections to outside professionals may be my most valuable contribution. If I can enable Afghans to reach experts, they will be better able to formulate questions and present issues from their own perspective and get assistance in ways that they need and will use.

I invite your comments and suggestions.
Pietro